Predicted Market Trading Volume Expected to Reach $10 Trillion by 2035

The annual trading volume of the prediction market is projected to reach $10 trillion by 2035. As contracts related to financial assets such as digital assets, stocks, and commodities surge, the financial asset sector is expected to become the largest trading area, surpassing the sports betting market. According to Bernstein, the trading volume in the prediction market is expected to increase from approximately $50 billion last year to $410 billion by 2026, and to $10 trillion by 2035. During the same period, the share of sports is expected to decrease from 61% to 38%, while the share of financial assets is expected to increase from 12% to 49%. From 2025 to 2035, the trading volume in the prediction market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 70%, with short-term contracts in the digital asset and commodity markets contributing to this increase. The share of digital assets in the total trading volume of Kalshi rose from less than 5% in January this year to 20% in August, while the trading volume in the commodity market increased from less than $2 million last year to approximately $590 million this year. The potential market for financial asset contracts is expected to grow from about $700 trillion in 2025 to $900 trillion by 2035, and if the prediction market captures 0.5% of this market, it could record an annual trading volume of about $4.7 trillion. However, regulatory issues surrounding the U.S. sports prediction market are expected to persist for the time being.

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