Ye Tan: The Internet Era is Coming to an End, the AI Era has Already Begun

At the "Ye Tan - Under the Cycle" private sharing session in the "Binance Lounge," renowned economist Ye Tan shared her views on topics such as the Kondratiev wave cycle, changes in China's economic structure, and the flow of wealth. She stated that if we are currently at a turning point in the Kondratiev cycle, the internet era is coming to an end, and AI has become the new direction for growth, with this round of change already underway.

Ye Tan pointed out that despite the overall decline in investment in China, investments in AI-related infrastructure remain at the level of several trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%. If relevant plans continue until 2030, social wealth and resources may continue to tilt towards emerging industries such as AI. However, she also emphasized that there are differences and market fluctuations within AI sectors, and industry growth does not necessarily mean that related investments will be profitable.

From the perspective of China's economic cycle, Ye Tan believes that China has rapidly completed multiple stages such as manufacturing, basic industries, and informatization over the past 40 years, with a noticeable acceleration in the speed of economic structure switching, leading to significant differentiation between different assets and industries. She cited real estate and high-tech industries as examples, pointing out that during the same period, different industries and groups may have vastly different perceptions of the economic cycle, essentially reflecting the redistribution of wealth between different industries.

At the mid-cycle level, geopolitical factors are also influencing industry prosperity. Ye Tan used the shipping industry as an example, stating that obstacles in the Red Sea shipping routes have led to longer shipping routes and decreased ship turnover efficiency, objectively increasing the demand for the number of ships by shipping companies, thereby extending the duration of the shipping industry's prosperity cycle.

Regarding the current economic environment, Ye Tan stated that traditional manufacturing and some consumer industries may be at the end of a recession cycle and gradually bottoming out. However, at the same time, new industries are rising, resulting in significant structural differentiation. She believes that the cycle itself does not directly tell investors what to buy, but it can help observe where wealth and funds are flowing and where risks are accumulating.

Finally, Ye Tan emphasized that different investors have varying tools and risk tolerance, and they should invest according to their own circumstances, starting with small trial and error and acting within their means.

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