New whales boost Bitcoin after bear market, says Spanish analyst

• One third of the realized capital of whales belongs to new entities.
• The $77,000 range acts as a crucial profitability threshold, says Moreno.

New Bitcoin (BTC) whales currently control one third of the realized capital of large holders. Spanish analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente explained on the CryptoQuant platform that this phenomenon solidified after the last bear market.

These entities, defined as addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC, increased from 18% at the beginning of the year to the current 33.06% of the total realized capital share. This way, the group positions itself as a key support for price recovery.

In absolute terms, this sector accumulates $78.61 billion compared to $159.15 billion recorded by old whales. This indicator does not measure stored coins, but rather the value of the coins in their last movement on the network, reflecting their final purchase price.

The following chart illustrates the historical evolution of this metric between long-term holders (LTH, in orange) and short-term holders (STH, in blue) since 2017. The image shows that, after several years of dominance by old wallets, the blue area records a sharply upward slope during 2026.
The capital in the hands of new whales experienced a surge throughout 2026. Source: CryptoQuant.

This curvature evidences a change compared to past recessions. While in previous bear markets old whales absorbed the capitulation, the graph confirms that recent addresses are absorbing the selling pressure in the current cycle.

This behavior responds to a steady growth. Since September, <>, stated Moreno de Vicente.

To measure the magnitude of the movement, the analyst detailed that the aggregated base cost, or average acquisition price, <<fell from around $110,000 near the previous peak to approximately $68,000 at the end of August, before recovering to about $77,000>>.

This variation demonstrates that holdings were <<readjusted to lower levels during the recession, followed by renewed participation as prices recovered>>. This dynamic supports <>.

However, due to the rotation among investors, the growth of realized capital <>. With the asset trading around $81,200, the value sits approximately 5.45% above that average cost.

Given this narrow difference, the $77,000 range acts as a crucial profitability threshold. If maintained above, it will reinforce the absorption of supply; conversely, <<a sustained loss of that level would put this group back in losses, increasing the incentive to exit during rallies>>.

To determine whether the market will face temporary stress or a distribution phase, Moreno de Vicente concluded that it will be crucial to monitor <>.

This technical accumulation phase coincides with short-term expectations in the macroeconomic landscape. As reported by CriptoNoticias, analyst Henrik Zeberg stated that the coin will reach $100,000 ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the United States Federal Reserve, scheduled for October 27 and 28.

Zeberg's projection requires a bullish push of 23.15% to reach that price. This target would place the quote closer to its all-time high of $126,000, reached in October 2025, and from which it is currently 35.55% below.

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