Elon Musk predicts SpaceX revenue of 3.5 trillion by 2033, Morgan Stanley estimates 2040

Elon Musk estimates SpaceX could achieve approximately 3.5 trillion dollars in annual revenue by 2033, seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's projection of 3.4 trillion dollars by 2040. SpaceX stock is currently trading near 141 dollars, about 38% below its peak in June. Morgan Stanley's model, shared with large investors prior to the June listing, forecasts around 330 billion dollars in 2030. Musk's figure surpasses his previous 1 trillion dollar target for 2030. SpaceX has not published any revenue targets in official filings, and the IPO prospectus does not provide forward guidance. Musk's target is nearly five times the revenue of Amazon, which earned 716.9 billion dollars in 2025, and 187 times SpaceX's 18.67 billion dollars booked in 2025. Achieving Musk's target would require an annual growth rate of about 92% for eight consecutive years. Starlink currently supports revenue, with subscribers doubling to 12 million last quarter, although average revenue per user decreased from 85 dollars to 66 dollars. Space revenue for the quarter was 962 million dollars, while the AI unit grew 247% to 2.56 billion dollars. Of 18.4 billion dollars in second-quarter capital spending, 15.8 billion dollars was allocated to AI. SpaceX estimates its addressable AI market at 26.5 trillion dollars. The company is also developing a 100 billion dollar spaceport in Louisiana and aims to launch AI compute satellites by 2028. SpaceX's last closing price was 140.87 dollars, valuing the company at approximately 1.91 trillion dollars.

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